Operations
Where your bookings vanish
Cancellation rate swings 3-4x by city.
10% to 36%
Based on
731,000 reservations
Key finding: Cancellation rates for short-term rentals range from 10% to 36% depending on the US city, a swing of roughly 3 to 4 times across markets.
The short version
Where your listing sits changes how often your bookings fall through. In some cities, about 1 in 10 reservations cancels. In others, more than 1 in 3 does. If you run a property in a high-cancel market, a full calendar is not the same as booked revenue, and you need to plan for it.
The data
Across 731,000 reservations, cancellation rate ran from 10% to 36% depending on the city. The Orlando and Disney corridor topped the list. That is the practical spread: your worst-case market cancels at more than triple the rate of your best-case market.
Why it works
The pattern tracks how far ahead people book, not how urban or rural a place is. A Disney trip is a big plan made far in advance. The more runway between booking and check-in, the more life can get in the way. Jobs change, budgets shift, plans fall apart. Long lead times give every reservation more chances to unravel before the guest ever arrives. Destination markets built around a single anchor attraction see this most.
What to actually do
Look up your own market’s cancellation pattern before you treat forward bookings as locked revenue.
Price to backfill. Assume some far-out bookings will cancel and keep your rates competitive enough to refill those dates.
Watch your booking lead times. If most of your reservations come in months ahead, expect more churn and manage your calendar accordingly.
The honest caveats
This is a correlational finding. It shows that cancellation rates differ sharply by city and that long-lead destination markets sit at the high end. It does not prove that lead time alone causes cancellations, and it does not give you a rate for any single property. The 10% to 36% range describes the spread across US cities in the sample, not a prediction for your listing.
Methodology
The analysis covered 731,000 reservations, drawn from IntelliHost and Key Data in 2026. Cancellation rate was measured as the share of reservations that cancelled, compared across US cities. The 10% to 36% figure is the range between the lowest-cancel and highest-cancel markets in that sample.
Frequently asked questions
What is a normal cancellation rate for a short-term rental?
There is no single normal. Across 731,000 reservations, rates ran from 10% to 36% by city, so what counts as normal depends heavily on your market.
Which cities have the highest cancellation rates?
The Orlando and Disney corridor topped the list in this study. Destination markets built around a big trip planned far ahead tend to sit at the high end of the 10% to 36% range.
Is a fully booked calendar the same as guaranteed revenue?
No. In high-cancel markets where up to 36% of reservations fall through, a full calendar overstates your real income. Price to backfill and treat far-out bookings as likely to change.